Insider Tips - Weekly Stock Market Report - Week April 14, 2025
Weekly Insider Tips - April 14, 2025
This past week has been a rollercoaster in the markets—some of the biggest swings we've seen in decades. Unfortunately, we're still firmly in a red, downward-trending market, and it doesn't look like we're out of the woods yet. The charts show death crosses, dreaded H patterns, and strong volume on the sell side across major indices and key stocks. I walked through some key technical signals that point to continued weakness, maybe even a prolonged downturn similar to 2008. That said, I’m staying defensive, rotating into safer sectors, holding hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, and using covered calls to generate income even while things chop sideways or fall further. It’s all about playing smart, staying cautious, and managing risk right now.
📉 Technical Analysis & Market Trends
We’re still in a primary downtrend, which began on March 4th, and I don’t see any strong signals of a reversal yet. On the New York Stock Exchange, we’ve dropped from around 19,900 to 17,800—and although it may not seem huge in percentage terms, it’s felt painful, especially with the recent extreme volatility.
I’m seeing a lot of concerning technical patterns:
-
Death Crosses (where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day) across several major indices and stocks.
-
Gap Fills followed by reversals—classic technical moves that suggest more selling pressure.
-
A formation of “dreaded H patterns”, which often signal another leg down after a failed recovery attempt.
-
High-volume selling, which indicates institutions are dumping shares, not just retail panic.
When I overlay today’s chart with that of 2008, the parallels are eerie. We’re seeing a similar pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with failed attempts to reclaim the 200-day moving average. That historic pattern didn’t resolve for over a year, and while history doesn’t repeat exactly, it often rhymes. This could suggest we’re in for a longer corrective cycle than many expect.
The panic index is also spiking—moving from quiet levels to the 40s and 50s, indicating fear is starting to creep in, but I don’t believe we’ve reached full capitulation yet.
🧭 Market Sentiment & Macroeconomic Backdrop
-
Recession or major growth slowdown feels imminent.
-
There’s increasing talk of rate cuts, likely politically motivated heading into an election cycle.
-
Safe-haven rotation is happening: investors are piling into defensive stocks—think utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, and even booze and cigarettes.
-
Inflation is still sticky. Even if the Fed says it’s easing, you and I both know we’re paying more at the store.
It’s feeling a lot like 2008, where government policy had to intervene with bank bailouts and stimulus. Now, we’re seeing a shift again—this time likely targeting rate suppression and liquidity injections in new forms.
📊 Individual Stock Breakdown
MicroStrategy (MSTR)
-
Dropped from $543 to $231, but bouncing.
-
At $284, it’s sitting on the 200-day moving average—a crucial level.
-
A breakout above $343 could retest $404.
-
Plays like Bitcoin, so price action is tied to crypto sentiment.
-
I'm selling slightly out-of-the-money covered calls here for cash flow, targeting a slow upside move.
IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)
-
Almost identical chart to MSTR.
-
Bounced off the 200-day as well, offering a potentially lower volatility Bitcoin proxy.
Apple (AAPL)
-
Chart looks rough: gap downs, a death cross, and no clear growth catalyst.
-
Likely to trade in a range between $170 and $200 for a while.
-
Buffett trimming his position isn't helping sentiment.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
-
Long-term top already in place.
-
Now sitting below all key moving averages.
-
Volume suggests persistent selling, and I don’t see a reversal in sight without a major catalyst.
Tesla (TSLA)
-
Also underperforming, with a dreaded H pattern forming.
-
Currently under all major moving averages.
-
Next key test is $217, and if that fails, lower support levels at $182 or even $138 come into play.
-
Too risky to try and call a bottom here.
Microsoft (MSFT)
-
Similar to other tech giants: death cross confirmed.
-
Dropped from $430 to under $400.
-
Struggling with broader tech weakness and a lack of near-term growth momentum.
Google (GOOGL)
-
Also below key averages.
-
With the rise of ChatGPT and AI, traditional advertising business models could be challenged, reducing the appeal of search-based platforms.
-
Hard to get bullish until broader tech sentiment improves.
🧠 Key Takeaways
-
Technical patterns like death crosses and dreaded H’s suggest more downside is possible.
-
Capitulation hasn't hit yet, meaning there could still be room for further pain.
-
Defensive positioning is smart: utilities, healthcare, staples, hard assets (like gold, silver, real estate, and Bitcoin).
-
Use tools like covered calls to generate income during down or sideways markets.
-
Watch for rate cuts, which could shift sentiment, but don't bank on a fast recovery.
🧾 Conclusion
Markets are in correction mode, and while we’ve seen some huge swings, the trend is still down. Technical signals are bearish, and macro headwinds aren’t helping. The best move now is to stay defensive, rotate into safe sectors, hedge with hard assets, and generate income using covered calls. This isn’t the time to chase bottoms—it’s time to protect capital and be patient. Whether this resolves in weeks or months, the goal is to be smart and stay in the game.
Let’s ride this storm out together—and squeeze the juice where we can.
Current Market Condition:
The market has been in a clear downtrend, marked by a shift to a "red market" since March 4th, signaling the start of a primary downward trend. Despite a few strong days, the overall sentiment remains bearish, with multiple red lights confirming sustained selling pressure. Key indexes like the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are showing signs of technical deterioration, including Death Cross formations, increasing volume on down days, and the emergence of dreaded “H” patterns — all indicators of continued weakness. The speaker emphasizes that we are not yet near capitulation, suggesting that more downside could be ahead before a true bottom is found.
Stock Tip of the Week:
This Week’s Juicy Trade Insight 🍊
In this week’s video, we break down a powerful income strategy using Best Buy (BBY) and a juicy put trade that generated $2,200 in income — all without owning the stock! If you’re looking for smart ways to generate passive income with options, this one’s for you.
▶️ Watch the full breakdown and see how the trade played out.
Big Win with MicroStrategy 💰
This week, MicroStrategy (MSTR) delivered a whopping $13,000 in income using a strategic covered call play. In this video, I walk you through exactly how the trade worked — and why MSTR continues to be one of our favorite setups.
▶️ Check it out and see why this trade is turning into a real winner.
$2,600 in 10 Days with JD.com 📉➡️💵
Even as JD.com drops, we’re cashing in. This week, I used my Juicy Put Strategy to generate $2,600 in just 10 days. In this video, I’ll break down the trade and show you how we turn market dips into cash flow.
▶️ Watch now to see how it’s done.
